Global Financial Crisis
- An analysis of the “fundamentals”
    The global financial crisis has created a total mayhem worldwide in the past few months. There is a good amount of
    material available that explains the current situation very lucidly. Also, there are expert commentaries analyzing the
    problems with typical jargons and convincing arithmetic representations.

    We are pretty sure that this problem would get resolved in the short term with the commendable response from the
    international community. What is being done right now will give symptomatic relief to the problems. We believe that this
    is the best that can be done at this stage. Because, before treating any disease, it is important to bring symptomatic
    relief first, so that the symptoms do not become a problem in themselves!
    We hear so much being talked about “fundamentals” in the news channels around the world. But somehow, We are
    unable to come to terms with their understanding of the term “fundamentals”.

    However, we fully agree that the root cause to all these problems arise due to faulty fundamentals.

    Confusing?

    Let us clarify.

    The term “fundamentals” as commonly used in the business community and the media means, the potential of an
    organization to meet expected turnover, profits, return on investments and growth. Now, let us highlight our
    perspective of the term and how it might have a bearing on this hot topic.

    A crisis arises when one or more of the following occurs:
    •        desire becomes greed,
    •        confidence becomes arrogance,
    •        knowledge stagnates,
    •        paradigms become stubborn and inflexible,
    •        passion gives way for obsession,
    •        selfishness leads to micro management,
    •        Competitiveness becomes aggression.

    These according to us are the fundamentals that are causative in bringing the global economy to this current situation.
    Now let us elaborate our view point,
    1.        Desire becomes greed (Growth, Growth, Growth…..)
    It is alright to desire to be strong, healthy and prosperous. Problem starts when this desire becomes insatiable.
    Everything in this planet keeps growing till it reaches its optimal level. If growth doesn’t halt at its optimal level, then it
    becomes an aberration and starts having destructive effects.

    Why would it be different in the case of business houses?  The present problems have been created by organizations
    that have grown beyond their optimal levels and have become toxic. The primary cause is not the organization or
    their executives alone. It is the public at large that has given excessive weight-age to growth thereby making it wanton
    and indiscriminate.
    2.        Confidence becomes arrogance ( I can do it - I do it)
     
    It is not the brand, processes and goodwill alone that make up an organization. People are the most important
    resources. Don’t we tend to judge a bank based on our first interaction with a branch manager?

    Why do more than 100 year old organizations collapse? Along the path of growth it is impossible to realize when
    confidence gives way to arrogance. Having existed for a long time or being big in size alone is not guarantee that the
    company is good or progressing or will be able to sustain itself for long. A single incapable person can damage its
    brand, processes and goodwill in a jiffy. An organization withstanding the test of time must definitely have had good
    values, but this confidence turning into arrogance can create problems for it in the future.

    When an organization is formed, it normally comprises of extremely talented individuals with strong value systems.
    With growth, orientation of new joiners to align with the organizational culture and values becomes a challenge. It is
    achievable mainly due to the quality of recruits and their adaptability. The successful orientation gives an impression
    that anybody can be molded with the help of effective orientation programs. This in turn results in sidelining the
    quality and qualification of the recruits. With indiscriminate growth, the orientation itself takes a back seat as it is
    assumed that the strong value system on its own will have the desired effects. This is the point at which unknowingly
    things start falling apart.
    3.        Knowledge Stagnates (I can show you the rule book)

    Well, then comes a stage of stagnation in knowledge assimilation. It is deemed that everything that ought to be known
    is known. All of knowledge is documented in the form of rules, regulations, policies and procedures.

    Experiences are unique and can be hardly captured in documents. There is a lot of difference between
    understanding and realizing.  Let us say, I document a statement “Candy is sweet”. It can be read and understood by
    people based on their own experiences. Unless the specific candy is tasted, the real experience is not fully realized.

    Any innovation or change could render an earlier understanding redundant.

    Now let’s take an example of a business norm that debt equity ratio should be 2:1.  How many finance experts can
    answer why?  The most likely reason for adherence as I make out is
    •        Because, that’s what we have been taught.
    •        I can prove it by referencing books.
    •        I can avoid answering questions.

    Well, there are so many creative professionals who can show you what you want to see. Can we go beyond the rule
    books and assess other aspects like quality of debts, the qualifications of people, the idea behind the enterprise etc.?

    A gentleman who was willing to give collateral of Rs.3.5 million was refused an overdraft of Rs.200 thousand based
    on his financial statements. At the same time one of his under performing employees getting an annual salary of Rs.
    60 thousand gets a personal loan of Rs.100 thousand without collateral or personal guarantees.

    This is a typical case of “form” taking over “matter”. The more formats we create, the more we emphasize on
    adherence, the lesser is the chance for objectivity, creativity and enhancement of assessing capabilities. It is just not
    enough to tick the questionnaire. One has to go beyond questionnaires, formats and manuals to assess the situation
    objectively and take an informed decision. Every situation, organization and every individual is different. A rule
    applicable in one situation may be inappropriate to another.

    You may ask at this juncture, that if there is no standardization, how are we to run businesses and conduct audits?
    Yes, standardization is required, but, flexibility should be allowed. Encouragement should be given to individuals in
    decision making capacities to use some amount of judgment before striking the hammer as per the rule books.
    Perhaps there is something wrong with the rule books. Not to mention there are some regressive, ineffective,
    inappropriate and meaningless statutes and regulations that we keep debating and analyzing. Their contribution
    weighs heavily on productivity.
    4.        Paradigms become stubborn (Land prices will go up)

    A closed mind is a high security prison which is impregnable. It holds in shackles virtues like creativity, objectiveness
    and learning.

    Paradigms become robotic commands under which mind functions and rigidity of paradigms blur clarity of mind,
    thereby rendering it nothing but a prison.

    One of the paradigms is to typecast capability of a person with their basic academic qualifications. It is generally
    expected and accepted that a technical expert cannot understand business nuances, a finance professional would
    not understand human resource aspects, a doctor cannot be a singer and vice versa.

    Similarly, the sub-prime crisis has been a side effect of one such paradigm. Housing loans had been given assuming
    that the value of assets would go up endlessly. This assumption has been driven by past statistics and accepted
    beliefs. The real worth of the properties, the potential for appreciation and ability of people to pay the asking prices
    have not been given due consideration. Not that some people would not have thought about them, but their views did
    not merit consideration due to rigid and well set paradigms.
    5.        Passion becomes Obsession (I love this - I can think of nothing else!)

    Passion is essential for achieving anything but obsession is dangerous. Professionals in the financial sectors have a
    passion for numbers as it makes meaningful analysis possible. However, the moment every aspect of business is
    attempted to be quantified through numeric representation it starts bordering on obsession. Facts are then attempted
    to be converted through arithmetic and complicated algorithms to create awesome metrics. Interpretations based on
    these complexities are bound to give confusing and inconclusive results. Sometimes, the numbers are meaningless or
    are just not required. Suppose, somebody makes a complicated calculation using algorithms and arithmetic formulae
    and statistics and comes up with a figure for risk quotient, say 49.8% risk of getting hurt by going and eating at a
    restaurant in Mumbai. How does this figure help me in making my decision of going out for lunch? Do I go out or do I
    not go out today? I could be lucky and be in the 50.2% margin or I could get unlucky today. This figure is meaningless
    to me. In fact, after the recent terrorist attack, Mumbai may be the most secure place to travel!

    Similarly, one could be passionate about using technology, but the moment it becomes an obsession, you start
    making your life complicated. You start using technology for even the simplest things which could be done by using
    common sense. And, you stop noticing any flaws that may be associated with it.

    In fact, truths are simple and common for all to see and not really as complicated as it is made out to be. A simple
    thing that a child can understand is not acceptable to us because grown-ups are supposed to know more!
    6.        Selfishness turning to self-centeredness and leading to micro management (I, me and myself)

    Some amount of selfishness is required for any individual or organization. As Ayn Rand puts it “the virtue of
    selfishness - Objectivist ethics proudly advocates and upholds rational selfishness.". The Objectivist holds that man
    must act for his own rational self-interest. But, when it turns to self-centeredness and leads to micro-management, it
    proves disastrous. A micro-manager always fails to see the bigger picture. The concept of “macroeconomics” or the
    Keynesian theory came into picture only after the great depression of 1930s. Till then microeconomics was ruling the
    roost. Compartmentalized thinking and concentrating on a single area or limitation may not be enough for survival in
    the long run. It is important to see the impact of any action on the overall business and global environment. There is a
    famous saying in English which says “penny-wise; pound-foolish”!

    Let us put forth some cases of micro-management which are relevant to our discussion.

    Scenario 1
    The credit manager is given bonus based on the amount of loans disbursed. Well it is difficult to resist the temptation
    to reach the target and in fact try a stretch target if possible. Care to evaluate at the quality of assets, ability to repay
    and market value of the mortgaged assets are not a problem in the current year. We will cross the bridge when it
    comes! It can be explained.

    Scenario 2
    The Finance manager will earnestly accrue interest income and informing of bad debts to the debt collection team in
    time doesn’t come at the top of his priority list because he is focusing on his key result areas for bonus which are
    regulatory compliance and cost reduction.

    Scenario 3
    The manager at the deposits section would receive deposits indiscriminately flouting regulatory issues as his bonus
    depends on amount mobilized and wouldn’t worry too much about the penalties that might be shelled out by his
    organization.

    Scenario 4
    The credit card manager gets his incentives based on the number of cards in force and the interest income.
    Therefore, his team would aggressively send out cards without sufficient verifications and issue credit limits. The
    moment a card is issued, customers are charged interest and other charges through the most creative calculations
    possible. The bad ones are not his problem as it is the debt collection department’s responsibility.

    These are some of the classic examples of segmental and departmentalized thinking and functioning one can see in
    big organizations. Though, a few would agree with the above, the fact remains that the real culprit in these instances
    is the faulty performance evaluation and incentive schemes.

    Corporate citizenship can only be found in policy books and procedure manuals. We do not suggest that selfishness
    should be totally eliminated. But we believe that incentive plans should not trigger the self-centeredness.
    7.        Competitiveness becomes aggression (I want it - I want it at any cost)

    Competition is healthy. It is a great leveler. It eliminates monopolistic tendencies, brings out options, offers choices to
    consumers, enhances quality of goods and services offered and instigates innovation and creativity. But, when
    competitiveness turns to aggression, it fails to achieve its true purpose. In our opinion true competitiveness should be
    in the quality of goods and services. Unfortunately, competitiveness is being understood to mean only cost
    advantage. As a result price war and under-cutting begins.

    New entrants or the growth seekers in an industry undercut the existing players to get market share. The strategy is
    that once the market share is captured the initial subsidy can be made good through price corrections two years
    down the line. The projected NPV calculation and break even analysis look fantastic on the white board.

    In reality, it becomes impossible to achieve. The penetrating price becomes the standard and customers refuse to
    pay more. To compound the problem existing players also reduce prices to keep up with the market. Eventually,
    survival becomes difficult for everyone, as organizations start surviving on highly leveraged positions rather than
    cash profits.
    Summary:

    Now, as soon as the symptomatic correction is brought about to stabilize the global economic crisis, i.e., as soon as the fever vanishes, let us get
    onto “fundamentals” and try and work on the root causes of the problems. We suggest the following remedies for eradicating the disease:
      
  1. Growth is vital but monstrosity may be disastrous. Steady and healthy growth with appropriate limits in mind will bring prosperity.
  2. Self-confidence is important. Do not neglect values and quality.
  3. Open your mind to newer possibilities. Innovation and creativity are the keys to success.
  4. Be passionate about success, it is essential; but success at any cost may not be so sweet.
  5. Do not fail to look at the bigger picture. Using the magnifying glass is good at times but cleaning a huge hall with a small paint brush is not
    wise.
  6. Over aggressiveness not only hurts others but would hurt you too in the long run. So, pay attention to quality of goods and service to
    compete and win.

    Conclusion:

    In conclusion, the present crisis is a collective failure on the part of all stakeholders which includes senior management, regulators, governments
    and general public worldwide.

    However bitter, unless, these fundamental truths are discussed, understood, and corrected we are bound to have more of such crisis in different
    spheres of our advancing world.